Tuesday, January 22, 2008

A Zero-Sum Week?

The primary race keeps getting crazier and crazier. Not only did Democratic candidates Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards almost engage in a full-fledged brawl during last night's (Jan. 21) televised debate but things are completely askew for the GOP as well. With every primary election revealing a new winner, it seems that Republicans have no idea who they want to represent them in the White House.

Romney's absence in South Carolina on Saturday (Jan. 19) was hardly noticed. The primary election held there was essentially a race between McCain and Huckabee, and a close one at that. McCain secured a victory by earning 33 percent of the vote, while Huckabee won 30 percent of the vote, losing by just 3 percent.

So where was Romney? Taking a much-needed vacation in Las Vegas? Not quite, but almost. The senator was in Nevada but not to hit the casinos in Sin City. He was campaigning to win votes in Nevada's primary election. The former Massachusetts governor won easily in the largely uncontested caucus, ignorning his defeat in South Carolina and the gains his competitors made on the East coast.

With one win and one loss in the same week, simple math indicates that Romney adds up right back to where he started: Zero. But looking past the numbers may allow voters to understand how Romney is attempting to define himself. It seems that he is trying to establish himself as an outsider. One would think that Romney would focus on larger states that award winners large numbers of delegates, which is a tactic McCain and Huckabee are employing. But Romney says that he's trying to set himself apart from the others by targeting a variety of states and regions.

"I'm not looking just to get a couple high-profile victories," he said in an interview with WTOPnews.com. "I want to get delegates and I want to win this nomination."

But what's the real reason behind Romney's separation from the other frontrunners? Is he truly trying out a new technique? Or does he fear that he can't win the "big" primaries, like the most recent one in South Carolina?

It's possible that Romney's tactics may be working. Though he hasn't won any of the "major" caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina), he has accrued a significant amount of delegates from winning Wyoming and Nevada and placing well in the other primaries. Unbeknownst to most, Nevada's caucus actually awards more delegates (31)to the winner than the more publicized South Carolina's primary (only 24).

Political analysts say that the breaking point for the candidates will be Florida. Romney's unique tactic of securing wins in small primaries seems to be working: He has won the most votes and the most delegates to date. Romney's wealth also affords (no pun intended) him the opportunity to continue writing checks to promote himself through events and advertising campaigns, which is an advantage he has over the other candidates.

Fred Thompson is out of the Republican race and as money dwindles and support wanes, other candidates are sure to follow suit. Romney's win in Nevada undoubtedly gives him a boost, as does his positive financial situation. But Republican Presidential Nomination polls pit him at third, with only 15.2 percent of the public's support, despite leading in delegate votes. Florida will be the ultimate test for Romney, revealing whether or not his trek to the White House should continue.

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